What's on the Menu? "mmmmmm . . . Basketball!!!!"

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

SDH's 2013/2014 NBA Worst to First Previews and Predictions: 18. Denver Nuggets


+Denver Nuggets 
Overall Win/Loss Record :  57-25,  second place Northwest Division


Last Season’s Rank

10
Projected 2013/2014 Finish

18
Last season’s Team Statistics and League Rank

  • Points Scored: 106.1 (1st)
  • Points Allowed: 101.1 (22nd)
  • Team FG%: .478 (5th)
  • Opponent’s FG%: .444 (11th)
  • Team FT%: .701 (28th)
  • Team Three Point FG%: .343 (25th)
  • Rebounds per game: 45.0 (2nd)
  • Opponents rebounds per game: 41.6 (10th)
  • Turnovers per game: 14.7 (27th)
  • Opponents turnovers per game: 15.2 (4th)


Returning Individual Statistical Leaders

  • Scoring (ppg):  Ty Lawson (16.7)
  • Rebounds per game: +Kenneth Faried (9.2)
  • Minutes per game: Ty Lawson (34.4)
  • Assists per game: Ty Lawson (6.9)
  • Field Goal Percentage: +Javale McGee  (.575)
  • Free Throw Percentage: Andre Miller (.840)   
  • Three Point FG Percentage: Wilson Chandler (.413)
  • Steals per game: Ty Lawson (1.5)
  • Blocked Shots per game: JaVale McGee (2.0)




Projected Starters Based on Talent, Tenure, Paycheck and Potential Impact:
  • C. JaVale McGee
  • PF. Kenneth Faried
  • SF. Danilo Gallinari
  • SG. Wilson Chandler
  • PG. Ty Lawson
Second Unit Roster Order Ranked on Talent, Tenure, Paycheck and Potential Impact:
  1. G. Andre Miller
  2. F/C. +JJ Hickson 
  3. F. Darrell Arthur
  4. G. +Randy Foye 
  5. G. Nate Robinson


Analysis:

Last season the Denver Nuggets followed up a franchise record 57 win regular season with a horribly embarrassing playoff elimination as the lost to the lower seeded +Golden State Warriors in the first round thus resulting in the team letting go their head coach of the past nine years, George Karl.  Karl's release had been a long time coming as he spent his tenure coasting rather coaching the Nuggets and not getting his team any farther than the first round of the playoffs save for that one time in 2009 where they went as far as the Western Conference Finals to lose in six games to the eventual champion +Los Angeles Lakers. Had the Nuggets passed the first round, Karl would have probably kept his job for another three years or so, but not even his Coach of the Year award would save him from finally being held accountable for Denver's poor post season showings.  Now the Nuggets welcome a new head coach in former Lakers assistant coach Brian Shaw who the team's front office hopes will being his championship experience as both a player and coach to shift this team from being merely marginal to simply magnificent. Sadly, it looks as if Shaw will have his work cut out for him to just get this team to the playoffs let alone lead it to championship glory as he and his team will enter a dramatically changed Western Conference where Denver is quite ill-equipped to handle.

Entering the season, Denver come with a drastically different team that the won that has won that franchise record 57 win season as they are not only without Karl in the coaching season, but also one of the key members of that team's success.  In last year's off season +Andre Iguodala became one of the key pieces of the most massive trade deal in +NBA history which involved four teams, ten players, three first round picks, and nearly a hundred million dollars in salaries.  Denver acquired Igoudala from the +Philadelphia 76ers while sending two players and a future first round draft pick to the +Orlando Magic in return; however, Iggy's tenure in the Mile High City would be short lived as he chose not pick up his player option for a final year choosing instead to leave as a free agent.  In a tragic ironic twist, he signs with the same team that humiliated them in the playoffs thus leaving the Nuggets with nothing to show for their sacrifices to get Igoudala as they lose him and a first round pick as well.  To makes matters worse, the Nuggets also parted ways with two other key pieces of last season's franchise record team in swing man Corey Brewer who signed with the team which originally drafted him in the +Minnesota Timberwolves and +Kosta Koufos, Denver's former starting center, who the Nuggets traded to the +Memphis Grizzlies for forward Darrell Arthur and the rights of a very low second round pick in this years's draft.

The Koufos move caught many off guard as he was a legit seven footer who gave the Nuggets possibly one of the deepest and intimidating center combos in him and JaVale McGee, but was sent away for little more than a shorter player who played primarily off the bench and a second round pick who may not even make the team.  In an even more confusing chain of events, the Nuggets chose to sign their third string center +Timofey Mozgov, who barely even played for the team to a lucrative three year deal worth 14$ million.  What makes this move puzzling is that they could have signed Koufos, who was by far a better center than Mozgov for about the same money then either sign Mozgov for far less money or even trade him for a low first or high second round pick. Instead the give up a player who would most handily start on any NBA teams and thus removed one of the Nuggets' greatest advantages--having not just one but two talented seven footers capable of protecting the rim, blocking out, rebounding and scoring in the paint.  And that was not even the most befuddling off season transactions that Denver has done that have both their fans along with NBA analysts and the media scratching their heads in sheer amazement and confusion.

As if the trade for Darrell Arthur was not perplexing enough, Denver goes on to sign former +Portland Trail Blazers starting power forward, +JJ Hickson to a three year deal worth 15$ million this creating a severely log jam in that that position considering they already have a capable starter in Kenneth Faried.  Last season, Hickson had his best performance in his professional career as he posted a double-double in points and rebounds averaging close to 13 points and 11 rebounds per game in just 29 minutes of playing time; however, he will not be starting as that place is already taken by Kenneth Faried and with Arthur in the mix, they will be few minutes to go around for them to have.  Add into the equation that Mozgov, who signed that 14$ million extension, will probably be pushed down the depth chart and may not be able to play leaving the Nuggets a 6$ million per year player rotting on the bench for much of the season.  As if that does not have heads spinning in confusion and disbelief, Denver goes in and sign another point guard who will be added to an already crowed rotation of Ty Lawson and Andre Miller in Nate Robinson whose skills as an offensive facilitator are highly questionable at best and whose diminutive size of 5'9" makes him a defensive liability.  And to top it all off, the Nuggets adds a third rate guard in Randy Foye whose shooting is very suspect to hopefully fill in the void that both Cory Brewer and Andre Igoudala left behind.

With such an oddball lineup, it is very difficult for one to predict Denver making the playoffs let alone repeating or improving from that historic franchise record winning season.  For starters, that 57 win season was probably the best the Nuggets will possibly ever do and with resurgent teams such as the Portland Trailblazers and the Minnesota Timberwolves who have made massive off season upgrades, Denver's chances of even securing the final playoff spot also come into question.  Neither do the Denver Nuggets have the personnel to compete in a superstar saturated Western Conference as its roster consists of mainly second tier player who at best would be a solid third or fourth option on a good NBA team.  Ty Lawson, who led the team in scoring and assists over the last two years, is in no way a franchise player that a team can build a championship team; neither are Danilo Gallinari, JaVale McGee, Wilson Chandler, and Kenneth Faried for that matter as well.  They'll certainly have what it takes to finish with a winning record in the 43 to 45 game range, but short of a miracle or a team shattering injury, Denver will be on the outside looking in at season's end.  It is such a shame to see a team like Denver that had not accomplished anything greater than just being as quickly eliminated from the playoffs to suddenly fall to being a lottery team because it seems like such a waste of time, effort and energy only to see it just slimp away so un-climatically.          

No comments:

Post a Comment