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Saturday, November 2, 2013

SDH's 2013/2014 NBA Worst to First Previews and Predictions: 4. San Antonio Spurs

Overall Win/Loss Record :  58-24 , first place Southeast Division



Last Season’s Rank

1
Projected 2013/2014 Finish 

4
Last season’s Team Statistics and League Rank

  • Points Scored: 103.0 (4th)
  • Points Allowed: 96.6 (11th)
  • Team FG%: .481 (2nd)
  • Opponent’s FG%: .442 (8th)
  • Team FT%: .791 (3rd)
  • Team Three Point FG%: .376 (4th)
  • Rebounds per game: 41.3 (21st)
  • Opponents rebounds per game: 42.5 (18th)
  • Turnovers per game: 14.1 (18th)
  • Opponents turnovers per game: 14.3 (12th)




Returning Individual Statistical Leaders

  • Scoring (ppg): Tony Parker (20.3)
  • Rebounds per game:  Tim Duncan (9.9)
  • Minutes per game:  Tony Parker (32.9)
  • Assists per game:   Tony Parker (7.6)
  • Field Goal Percentage: +Tiago Splitter  (.560)
  • Free Throw Percentage: Corey Joseph (.860)
  • Three Point FG Percentage: Matt Bonner (.442)
  • Steals per game: +Kawhi Leonard (1.7)
  • Blocked Shots per game:  Tim Duncan (2.7)

Projected Starters Based on Talent, Tenure, and Potential Impact:
  • C. Tiago Splitter
  • PF.  Tim Duncan
  • SF. Kawhi Leonard
  • SG. Danny Green
  • PG.  Tony Parker
Second Unit Roster Order Ranked on Talent, Tenure, and Potential Impact:
  1. G/F.  +Manu Ginobli 
  2. F/C.  +Boris Diaw 
  3. F/C. Matt Bonner
  4. G. +Marco Belinelli 
  5. G.  Cory Joseph
Analysis:

Every year it is the same old thing when it comes to the San Antonio Spurs--you can almost set your watch to them with 55 to 60 games and finishing among the top two or three teams in the Western Conference; however, last season was very different.  This time, the Spurs actually surpassed the expectations of many as they not only reached the NBA Finals, but came within one game of winning its fifth NBA title.  It was that game six that really did it in for San Antonio as they led the series over the +Miami HEAT three games to two and when it seemed it was just about over, then a last second three tied the game and sent it to over time.  It was miraculous shot after another and once it was all said and done, Miami came away with the win to even the series at three games apiece.  Game seven was simply a grudge match that saw both teams stretch to the point of breaking, but in the end the Heat proved to be the more elastic as the Spurs snapped apart in the fourth quarter as Miami went on to win their second straight NBA title.  Such a season not only uplifted the Spurs and their fans, but it also gave hope for the future as the Spurs will be returning with the same team that endeared itself to the hearts of many; however, this season the Spurs will have even greater obstacles placed before them and with their roster's advanced age, may not be able to repeat their magical playoff run last season.

First off, the Spurs will have enough trouble trying to keep their long standing streak of dominating their Southwest Division thanks to the immense upgrades of one of their neighbors, the +Houston Rockets.  When it was announced that Houston had signed the biggest off season prize in free agency, +Dwight Howard, the balance of power suddenly shift as Houston went from being just a marginal playoff team into a true champion contender.  Last season, the Rockets barely managed to grab the final playoff spot in the Western Conference thanks to the efforts of their previously acquired off season gem of +James Harden, but now with Howard in the mix, Houston now has possibly the most potent inside/outside tandem in the league.  Add alongside Howard and Harden with a supporting cast that consists the massive shot blocking and rebounding presence of +Omer Asik along with sharpshooting swing man +Chandler Parsons and the poster boy of the lockout shortened 2012 season, +Jeremy Lin, the Rockets have the size, depth and the offensive firepower to take the Spurs head on.  Winning first place in the Southwest Division will be a blood bath in itself between these two Texas Titans, but that will be nothing once the playoffs arrive and that will be the true test for the Spurs to see if they will have enough left after an arduous 82 game regular season.

As if having an upstart Rockets teams threatening their long standing dominance in their division were not enough, the Spurs will also have to deal with two emerging powers in the Western Conference who at one time would not have even considered them a threat a few years ago.  Both the +Los Angeles Clippers and +Golden State Warriors have spent much of their history as bottom dwellers of the Western Conference; however that all changed last season when the Clippers won a franchise record 56 games and its first ever first place finish in their Pacific Division while the Golden State Warriors had a magical season of their own.  Not only did the Warriors finished with their best record in five years in five years and reached the playoffs, but they shocked the world advancing to the Conference Semi-Finals where they gave the Spurs a run for their money before falling to them in six games.  Both teams have return far stronger than they ever were last season with the Warriors acquiring All Star swing man +Andre Iguodala to join their already potent lineup of +Stephen Curry, +Klay Thompson+Andrew Bogut and David Lee while the Clippers' had an off season that will not only have remain on top of the West this years, but for years to come.  L.A started the season by locking down their star +Chris Paul to a long term extension and added more quality pieces to further strengthen their roster by added sharpshooter +JJ Reddick, an athletic wing in Jared Dudley, and a former starting point guard in Darren Collison to back Paul up; however, their best acquisition was the hiring of former +Boston Celtics coach Doc Rivers, who had brought the Celts to two NBA Finals and one NBA Championship title.

While the rest of the West were stock piling ammunition for the upcoming season, the Spurs remained relatively silent during the off season basically standing pat with their current roster.  They bid farewell to backup point guard Gary Neal, who signed to the +Milwaukee Bucks, and beefy front court bruiser +DeJuan Blair, who found a new home signing with the +Dallas Mavericks.  At the same time they kept their core intact signing center Tiago Splitter to a five year 50$ million dollar extension while bringing back aging fan favorite Manu Ginobli, who looked as if his best basketball have passed, to another two years at around 15$ milion. The only new addition the Spurs brought in was Italian swing man, Marco Belinelli, a journeyman who has had his share of address changes being on four teams in his six year career.  Despite his skills and athleticism, Belinelli has never proven to be anything more than a marginal rotation player and due to his notoriously poor defense, may not find a permanent home in San Antonio.  

With the new additions and a even stronger Western Conference, do not expect the Spurs to simply lie down and allow themselves to be trampled over; instead, expect the same consistent winning performance that we have all gotten used to over the years. Despite the radical changes, the Spurs still remain as the team to beat in the Western Conference and almost certain championship contender once the playoffs arrive.  The question is not whether or not the Spurs make the playoffs, but rather how far will they reach once they get there?  After all, much of San Antonio success in the playoffs last season ad to do with the revitalized play of Tim Duncan as he posted some of the best numbers in his career; however, at 38 years old, is he capable of putting up an encore performance?  That is one of the many questions facing the Spurs this upcoming season and with the shift of the balance of power in the West, it will certainly be interesting to see how things pan out.                         

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